Growing Israeli fears of the approaching "post-Abbas" era

  • الجمعة 05 اغسطس 2022 11:43 م

Growing Israeli fears of the approaching "post-Abbas" era


Translate: Nashwa Abu Amer

Recently, the Israelis have been discussing the future of the situation in the Palestinian territories if the page of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is turned, as their estimates are increasing regarding the start of the countdown to the beginning of this sensitive and dangerous era for Israeli security. The day after Abbas’s absence may bring with it an end to the autonomy model, and what it means from security cooperation.

Although recent events in the West Bank confirm that “the day after Abu Mazen” is present among us, after manifestations of a government vacuum spread in some areas of the West Bank, which constituted a concern for the occupation authorities, in conjunction with the increase in armed manifestations from various organizations, which necessitates consideration for the future of the day after the absence of the "President", what the Palestinian territories are witnessing is a rolling process that indicates the weakness of the authority, which the occupation has granted the self-ability to manage the standard of living of the Palestinians in exchange for security cooperation with it.

But this preferred Israeli model has been severely undermined, especially after the recent wave of guerrilla operations that struck the occupation on the eve of Ramadan, when its security services monitored the increase of what they describe as “outposts” in the West Bank, which produce manifestations of challenges to the rule of the Authority, and at the same time, they intimidate them against Occupation through armed attacks, even though the emergence of these “outposts” nearly two decades after the end of the second intifada, would undermine the foundations of the Israeli strategy that maintained a calm security reality despite the absence of a political process with the Palestinian Authority.

The emergence of “enclaves” of the lack of PA control in the Palestinian space, the strengthening of the weight of local parties with an anti-occupation agenda, and the existing gap between the factions and the authority, represent a great challenge to the authority and the occupation together, In this case, the scenario of the disintegration of authority becomes reasonable under current political and social conditions that will increase the likelihood of increased friction with occupation, with both the military and settler.

Israeli fear is directly reflected in the security reality of the army and settlers, but the fear of the Israelis extends to the political aspects. The emergence of these phenomena in the Palestinian territories would return the Palestinian issue to the center of regional and international politics, which means diverting energies and efforts from the consolidation of a new Middle East based on normalization and economic cooperation.

This critical situation increases Israeli demands for the necessity of security preparedness in anticipation of suddenly waking up to the news that Abbas is absent from the scene, which requires the occupation to think strategically about how to reduce the damage caused by this, especially at the level of security stability in the West Bank.


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