Israeli motives and constraints for the outbreak of a war with Hezbollah because of gas
Translate: Nashwa Abu Amer
With the faltering of the Lebanese-Israeli negotiations regarding the demarcation of the maritime borders, and the outbreak of a gas extraction crisis from the sea, threats escalate between the occupation and Hezbollah, and it may end in an escalation they do not want, especially with the occupation’s announcement that it will start extracting gas from the “Karesh” field within two months, which exacerbates the long and complex controversy over their maritime borderline.
Although the Lebanese want the line to head south and give them more space than the Israeli line that extends north, and while the United States, as a mediator in this issue, offered a compromise, the occupation actually accepted it, and the Lebanese are close to accepting it, but Hezbollah’s position prevented even now from signing the settlement, at least according to the Israeli allegations.
The Israelis believe that the matter is now urgent, because the company that owns the production rights from the Karish field, located on the Israeli side near the disputed area, is preparing to extract gas from the Mediterranean within two months, which increases the pressure exerted by the two sides on each other in the last moments, to extract as many concessions as possible.
The Israeli assessment is that the threats of the party come within the propaganda war, while it is important to take them into account, so it has no interest in waging a war against the occupation, for many reasons, but the operational field reality pushes the two sides not to allow the other side to emerge victorious from any war, so as not to encourage it on escalation.
The prevailing Israeli assessment indeed holds that the party does not want war, but the army is required to prepare for the possibility that it may be wrong, or that the reactions and counter-reactions will get out of control and against the will of the two parties, at which point they will enter into an unwanted military confrontation, which will lead to severe reactions. At that time, it is impossible to know what will happen, which requires the occupation to give the American mediator the time he needs, even if he requests to postpone gas production for a limited period.
The Israeli forums monitor the developments of the internal Lebanese reality with clear accuracy, and all of them constitute obstacles to the party not to go to a military confrontation, but at the same time, the occupation’s progress in extracting gas, as planned, without agreement with Lebanon, may get things out of control, especially since the occupation state is aware of the reality and quality of the party’s capabilities that are capable of inflicting harm on it, in return for its response to Lebanon will be dozens of times more severe than the response in Gaza, this is an equation whereby both sides, the party, and the occupation, have long internal debates to collect the legitimacy of any military action against the other.